Championship – Analysis

Can Ferrari still win the title?
Expert analyst Mark Hughes examines the events of the
Nurburgring, and the current balance of power in Ferrari and McLaren’s
title fight.

Fernando Alonso’s superb victory for McLaren-Mercedes at the Nurburgring was definitely a result against par.

There is every evidence to suggest that a straightforward dry race would have seen Felipe Massa score a decisive victory.

Taking the ‘what if?’ scenario a step further, had Kimi Raikkonen not suffered the leaking hydraulics system that put him out and
it had been a straightforward dry race, all the best evidence indicates
that it would have been a Ferrari 1-2 in the order of Raikkonen, Massa.

But championships are not won on what ifs, and the stark reality
post-Nurburgring (but pre- the Paris FIA hearing regarding
‘Stepneygate’ on Thursday) is that Massa is 11 points behind in his
chase of the title and Raikkonen 18.

They are big numbers to overcome with only seven races left.

But all is not lost for Ferrari. At the same point last season
Michael Schumacher was 17 points adrift of Alonso and were it not for
that engine failure whilst leading at Suzuka would probably have
secured the crown.

But
to claw back around two points per race on the McLaren drivers is
realistically going to require Ferrari to win every grand prix from now
– preferably with 1-2s.

Can it be done? Can the Ferraris be faster and at least as reliable as the McLarens in what is left of the season?

Since the aero update for Magny-Cours three races ago the Ferrari
has been the faster car, though at the Nurburgring the margin was
smaller.

In fact, Alonso was only denied a likely pole for McLaren by a big
oversteer moment through turns 5-6 that the sector times showed lost
him 0.5s. Subtract 0.5s from his actual qualifying time and he would
have been on pole by 0.2s from Raikkonen.

However, Kimi was four laps heavier (around 0.35s worth at this
track), so the Ferrari would still have been on a weight-adjusted pole
regardless – by around 0.15s.

Furthermore, this was on the soft, which was the faster tyre over
one-lap. The harder tyre was much faster over a stint as it suffered
far less performance degradation.

On this tyre the Ferrari’s speed advantage over the McLaren was
greater. This was shown quite decisively in the practice sessions but
we never got to see a definitive playing out of it in the race.

Between
their changeover to dry-weather tyres on lap 12 and their refuelling
stops on lap 37 (Alonso) and 38 (Massa), Alonso was struggling with not
enough front wing angle because the adjusting tool had failed at his
pit stop. It was during this period that Massa built up an 8.4s lead
over the McLaren.

Between then and when they made their unscheduled stops to change
back to wet-weather tyres, Alonso – now with the correct wing setting –
cut back into that gap, and had it down to 4.9s by lap 52.

It was a wonderful charging effort from Alonso but Massa was adamant
that he was just controlling his race from the front, that he had no
need to have the lead out to any more than that with just eight laps to
go.

There was no reason to disbelieve him – he had it in the bag. Only
the reappearance of the rain threw everything back up into the air.

So we never did get to see a healthy Ferrari and McLaren going
all-out on a dry track together. But Massa’s fastest lap of 1m 32.853s
was significantly faster than anything posted by Alonso or Hamilton.
Alonso’s best was a 1m 33.231s, when on low fuel but with his incorrect
wing setting.

We were denied seeing an Alonso low-fuel/correct wing lap, but the
evidence from the 13 laps when he was on the correct wing and chasing
Massa suggests his best would have been around 1m33s dead on low fuel.

In
the wet late stages Alonso was decisively faster, but there was a good
reason for the severe vibrations Felipe complained of during this
period: his rear tyres had turned on their rims.

Severe tyre vibrations on a wet track is always going to seriously
compromise performance so we weren’t comparing like with like in those
exciting late stages when Alonso was hunting Massa down prior to
passing him.

Comparison of the wet early stage paints a different picture, one where the two cars were very evenly matched.

And so far we have considered only Massa in the Ferrari equation.
Raikkonen’s pace was disguised prior to retirement by his having to run
behind the compromised Alonso (as a result of missing the pit entrance
on the treacherous surface at the end of lap one).

Throughout the practices and in the final qualifying session,
Raikkonen appeared to have the decisive edge within Ferrari. His pole
time was set with fuel for one more lap than Massa, yet was 0.328s
faster.

Had this been a straightforward dry race – and had he not suffered
his hydraulics failure – there is every reason to believe Raikkonen
would have walked it to make it three wins in a row.
But the significant thing is that he did suffer that
failure. Reliability is where Ferrari looks decisively weaker than
McLaren-Mercedes, and where its title chances look most likely to
flounder.